Estimating Confidence Intervals for 2020 Census Statistics Using an Approximate Monte Carlo Simulation (Production Run)

Description

The 2020 Census Production Settings Demographic and Housing Characteristics (DHC) Approximate Monte Carlo (AMC) method seed Privacy Protected Microdata File (PPMF0) and PPMF replicates (PPMF1, PPMF2, ..., PPMF50) are a set of microdata files intended for use in estimating the magnitude of error(s) introduced by the 2020 Census Disclosure Avoidance System (DAS) into the 2020 Census Redistricting Data Summary File (P.L. 94-171), the Demographic and Housing Characteristics File, and the Demographic Profile.

The PPMF0 was the source of the publicly released, official 2020 Census data products referenced above, and was created by executing the 2020 DAS TopDown Algorithm (TDA) using the confidential 2020 Census Edited File (CEF) as the initial input; the official location for the PPMF0 is on the United States Census Bureau FTP server, but we also include a copy of it here for convenience. The replicates were then created by executing the 2020 DAS TDA repeatedly with the PPMF0 as its initial input.

Inspired by analogy to the use of bootstrap methods in non-private contexts, U.S. Census Bureau (USCB) researchers explored whether simple calculations based on comparing each PPMFi to the PPMF0 could be used to reliably estimate the scale of errors introduced by the 2020 DAS, and generally found this approach worked well.

The PPMF0 and PPMFi files contained here are provided so that external researchers can estimate properties of DAS-introduced error without privileged access to internal USCB-curated data sets; further information on the estimation methodology can be found in Ashmead et. al 2024.

The 2020 DHC AMC seed PPMF0 and PPMF replicates have been cleared for public dissemination by the USCB Disclosure Review Board (CBDRB-FY22-DSEP-004). The PPMF0 and PPMF replicates contain all Person and Units attributes necessary to produce the 2020 Census Redistricting Data Summary File (P.L. 94-171), the Demographic and Housing Characteristics File, and the Demographic Profile for both the United States and Puerto Rico, and include geographic detail down to the Census Block level. They do not include attributes specific to either the Detailed DHC-A or Detailed DHC-B products; in particular, data on Major Race (e.g., White Alone) is included, but data on Detailed Race (e.g., Cambodian) is not included in the PPMF0 and replicates.

Update Frequency

Not Updated

License

CC0 1.0 Universal

Documentation

AMC Replicates README (Updated 9/17/2024)

Managed By

United States Census Bureau

See all datasets managed by United States Census Bureau.

Contact

2020DAS@census.gov

How to Cite

Estimating Confidence Intervals for 2020 Census Statistics Using an Approximate Monte Carlo Simulation (Production Run) was accessed on DATE from https://registry.opendata.aws/census-2020-amc-mdf-replicates.

Usage Examples

Tools & Applications

• Estimating Confidence Intervals Using Approximate Monte Carlo Simulation Iterations (Jupyter Notebook) by Ashmead, R., Hawes, M. B., Pritts, M., Zhuravlev, P., Keller, S. A.
  

Publications

• An Approximate Monte Carlo Simulation Method for Estimating Uncertainty and Constructing Confidence Intervals for 2020 Census Statistics by Ashmead, R., Hawes, M. B., Pritts, M., Zhuravlev, P., Keller, S. A.